Section 2 of 4
Stablecoins & Macro Environment
· Updated daily at 15:20 UTC
How do interest rates, dollar liquidity, Fed balance sheet conditions, money supply, inflation, and risk sentiment relate to stablecoin supply growth? This section tracks 8 macro indicators that track conditions associated with, or that can influence, changes in stablecoin supply, liquidity and demand. The charts show co-movement and directional proxies; they should not be read as proof of causality unless explicitly stated. All series are sourced daily from FRED and Yahoo Finance, with coverage extending back to 2020.
Policy Rates & Yield Curve
Interest Rates
Short-Term Rates & Stablecoin Supply
SOFR and the FEDFUNDS regime, the foundation of the dollar rate environment. When the Fed tightens, stablecoin supply contracts as T-bills outcompete on-chain yields.
3.68%
Neutral
Real Rates
Real Interest Rates (10Y)
DGS10 minus 10Y breakeven inflation. The 2021 stablecoin expansion coincided with deeply negative real rates; the 2022 to 2023 contraction coincided with real rates rising above zero. One of several macro variables relevant to allocation regimes, not a sole predictor.
+2.14%
Positive Real Rate
Yield Curve
10Y–2Y Yield Curve Spread
DGS10 minus DGS2. Inverted curves have historically preceded recessions and Fed pivots; the curve is one of several macro signals associated with stablecoin supply moves, not a standalone demand model.
+0.28%
Normal
Dollar Liquidity & Money Supply
Fed Balance Sheet
Fed Net Liquidity
WALCL minus TGA minus RRP, the standard "Fed liquidity" proxy. Expansions and contractions in this measure have historically led broad risk-asset moves by 6–12 weeks.
$5.83T
Expanding
Money Supply
M2 Money Supply
M2SL year-over-year growth. M2 expansion in 2020–21 coincided with the 100×+ stablecoin supply expansion. M2 contraction in 2022–23 with the contraction.
+5.58% YoY
Expanding
Inflation
US CPI Inflation
CPIAUCSL year-over-year change. The Fed's reaction function, high CPI drives rate hikes which tighten dollar liquidity. In EM markets, persistent local inflation drives dollarization demand.
+4.17% YoY
Above Target
Risk Sentiment & International Rates
Risk Sentiment
VIX, Fear & Greed, HY Spread
Composite of VIX volatility, crypto Fear & Greed, S&P 500, and BAML high-yield credit spread. Risk-off regimes drain stablecoin supply; risk-on regimes fuel it.
VIX 16.4
Calm
International Rates
DM Sovereign Rates (EU/UK/JP)
EURIBOR 3M plus Germany, Japan, UK 10Y sovereign yields. Cross-currency rate differentials drive carry trade flows and the relative attractiveness of USD vs other DM currencies.
EURIBOR 2.03%
Neutral