Real Interest Rates & Stablecoin Markets
· Updated daily
As of Aug 2026, the US 10-year real (inflation-adjusted) yield was +2.36%, with the nominal yield at 4.67% and breakeven inflation at 2.31%. This page plots real rates alongside stablecoin supply, currently $303.8B, over the same period.
As of Aug 2026, the US 10-year real interest rate stands at +2.36%, nominal Treasury yield (DGS10) of 4.67% minus 10-year breakeven inflation of 2.31%. The real rate is held as the constant macro signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices (market cap, velocity, USDT and USDC dominance, Supply Shock Index, and Issuer Theil). Real rates are one important opportunity-cost channel for stablecoin markets: when real rates rise, T-bills genuinely reward capital; when they fall or turn negative, on-chain dollar yield closes the carry. During the 2022 to 2023 hike cycle, the real rate moved from −0.7% to +2.0%, and stablecoin supply contracted from $180B to $125B over the same window; the series went on to peak at +2.5% in October 2023, during the pause that followed. The IMF[1] documents this opportunity-cost channel and other macrofinancial drivers; the chart should be read as co-movement, not proof of a single causal mechanism. Switching the Compare-Against selector tests whether velocity, dominance, or concentration responded to the same shift. Notable episodes: the March 2023 SVB collapse briefly pulled real rates back toward zero before inflation expectations stabilized; and the September 2024 Fed pivot, which opened the cutting cycle in policy rates without lowering the 10-year real rate.
Stablecoin Market Cap vs 10Y Real Rate
Total stablecoin market cap (left axis, green) overlaid with the 10Y real rate (right axis, blue dashed). The dashed red line marks zero, above it, real T-bill yields are positive; below it, negative. Use the Compare against selector above to swap the left-axis indicator.
What Drives the Real Rate, Nominal Yield vs Breakeven Inflation (Full History)
10Y nominal Treasury yield DGS10 (blue) vs 10Y breakeven inflation T10YIE (amber dashed). The shaded fill is the real rate, defined as the gap between the two lines. Breakeven inflation rose above nominal yields in 2020 to 2022, and real rates turned negative during that period. The 2020 to 2022 stablecoin expansion phase coincided with this regime, though many other drivers were also at work (zero policy rates, DeFi yield premia, COVID-era retail crypto adoption, EM dollarization). The chart is a co-movement record, not a causal attribution.
The four regime boxes below describe how stablecoin market cap has moved through each real-rate regime; the opportunity-cost channel is one of several discussed in the IMF's Understanding Stablecoins[1]. When you switch the Compare against selector, the chart updates and the underlying mechanism shifts: velocity tests whether real-rate cycles change settlement intensity; USDT vs USDC dominance separates offshore from institutional flows; the Supply Shock Index makes regime-by-regime issuance flux explicit; Issuer Theil reveals concentration regime shifts. Use the 4-box framework as the rate-cycle backbone and switch comparisons to test which stablecoin indicator the real-rate signal is moving on a given day.
With nominal yields near zero and inflation rising, real rates turned deeply negative. T-bills yielded nothing after inflation. DeFi protocols offering 5–12% APY were substantially more attractive relative to near-zero T-bill yields. Total stablecoin market cap grew from ~$6B to ~$180B during this period.
For macro investors: Negative real rates can support on-chain dollar yield by lowering the risk-free alternative. The carry into stablecoin DeFi is most attractive when real T-bill yields are below zero.
As the Fed raised rates from 0% to 5.25%, real rates moved from −0.7% to +2.0%. T-bill yields exceeded the headline DeFi yield. Total stablecoin market cap contracted from ~$180B to ~$125B over the same window.
For CFOs and treasury teams: The supply contraction and the rise in real rates are observed together over this window; that is not by itself proof that rates caused it.
Despite real rates remaining near their hike-cycle highs, stablecoin supply stopped contracting and began recovering from its ~$125B trough. Markets were pricing in an eventual cut cycle ahead, consistent with allocation responding to rate expectations as much as current levels. Supply grew from ~$125B to ~$170B during this regime.
For macro analysts: The recovery of stablecoin supply while real rates were still elevated at +2%+ illustrates why forward SOFR expectations are as important as the current real rate reading. For CFOs: Even at high real rates, cut expectations can justify early re-entry to stablecoin allocation ahead of the institutional consensus.
The Fed began cutting its policy rate in September 2024, but the 10-year real rate has risen since, from +1.58% to +2.36%: nominal yields moved up while breakeven inflation stayed broadly flat. Stablecoin supply expanded over the same period, so this is the regime in which supply growth and a rising real rate occur together.
For DeFi risk teams: Monitor collateral utilization and redemption pressure alongside this rate signal.
Real rate computation: 10Y real rate = DGS10 (10-year nominal Treasury yield) minus T10YIE (10-year breakeven inflation rate). Both series are published daily by the US Federal Reserve. Coverage: January 2020 – present. Both series are denominated in percent per annum.
Breakeven inflation rate: T10YIE is derived from the yield spread between nominal 10-year Treasuries and 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). It represents the market's implied forecast for average CPI inflation over the next 10 years, not a survey or model estimate.
Forward-filling: Both DGS10 and T10YIE are not published on weekends or US federal holidays. Missing values are forward-filled from the last available observation to produce a continuous daily series. Data gaps are not interpolated, the last known value is carried forward.
Regime bands: Set to actual FOMC meeting dates, the four regimes (zero-rate, hike cycle, high-rate pause, cutting cycle) correspond to documented FOMC policy decisions, not model estimates. When the FOMC acts, bands are updated manually within one business day and the page is rebuilt. The current regime (cutting cycle, Sep 2024–present) remains open-ended until the next policy change.
Comparison indicators (left axis):
- Market Cap, daily sum of all tracked stablecoin market caps. See the methodology for data sources and coverage. The standard lens for tracking macro co-movement.
- Velocity, sum of daily on-chain trading volume (24h) divided by total market cap on the same day. Dimensionless ratio. Higher = more transactional use.
- USDT Dominance. USDT market cap as percent of total. Captures the offshore / non-US share of dollar-stablecoin demand.
- USDC Dominance. USDC market cap as percent of total. Sensitive to real-rate cycles because Circle's reserves are T-bill heavy.
- Supply Shock Index (SSI), rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin market cap. The flux signal.
- Issuer Theil, Theil entropy of issuer market shares. Rises when issuance concentrates in fewer issuers.
What this page does not prove: Co-movement between the real rate and any comparison series is not causation. Stablecoin indicators are influenced by many drivers beyond real rates (regulation, offshore demand, DeFi-specific yield, EM dollarization). Use this page to test the real-rate-transmission hypothesis under each lens, not to attribute single causes.
Update frequency: Daily at ~15:30 UTC. Both series are published with a 1-business-day lag.
- Adrian, Tobias, Parma Bains, Marianne Bechara, et al. 2025. "Understanding Stablecoins." IMF Departmental Paper No. 2025/009, International Monetary Fund. imf.org/en/publications/departmental-papers/issues/2025/12/02/understanding-stablecoins-570602