Risk Sentiment & Stablecoin Markets
· Updated daily
As of Aug 2026, the VIX volatility index was 14.5 (Low — risk-on environment) and the Fear & Greed reading was 71 (Greed). This page plots market risk sentiment alongside stablecoin supply, currently $303.8B, over the same period.
As of Aug 2026, the VIX stands at 14.5 (Low — risk-on environment). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 71 (Greed). VIX is held as the constant risk-sentiment signal on this page; the stablecoin indicator it is compared against is selectable from six choices (market cap, velocity, USDT and USDC dominance, Supply Shock Index, and Issuer Theil). Supply is only one channel: velocity, dominance, and concentration each respond differently under stress. Switching the Compare-Against selector tests which stablecoin indicator is most responsive to VIX moves on a given day. Notable risk-off episodes include the March 2020 COVID crash (VIX 82.7, highest since 2008), the May 2022 UST/Luna collapse ($60B wiped, VIX 34.8), the November 2022 FTX collapse (VIX 26.1, sustained Extreme Fear for weeks), the March 2023 SVB / USDC depeg (VIX 26.5, with USDT gaining supply as holders rotated out of USDC), and the August 2024 yen carry-trade unwind (VIX 38.6). Updated daily.
Stablecoin Market Cap vs VIX Volatility Index
Total stablecoin market cap (left axis, green) overlaid with the CBOE VIX (right axis, red dashed). VIX spikes above 25–35 signal risk-off conditions, watch for corresponding stablecoin indicator moves. Use the Compare against selector above to swap the left-axis indicator.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Daily Fear & Greed score (0 = Extreme Fear, 100 = Extreme Greed) from public market-sentiment data. Horizontal bands mark the five sentiment zones.
The three regime boxes below describe how stablecoin market cap has moved through each risk-sentiment regime, the safe-haven channel. When you switch the Compare against selector, the chart updates and the underlying mechanism shifts: velocity tests whether risk-off conditions reduce settlement intensity (or just park more capital); USDT vs USDC dominance separates offshore safe-haven flows from institutional T-bill rotation under stress; the Supply Shock Index makes the regime-by-regime issuance flux explicit; Issuer Theil reveals whether stress consolidates market share. Use the 3-box framework as the risk-cycle backbone and switch comparisons to test which stablecoin indicator the VIX signal is moving on a given day.
Stress episodes differ: the Mar 2020 COVID crash was followed by rapid stablecoin supply expansion, while the Nov 2022 FTX collapse saw net redemptions at the aggregate level even as traders rotated within crypto. Read each episode against the supply line rather than assuming one direction.
Moderate fear regimes (hike cycle 2022–23) sustained stablecoin supply contraction as risk-off was accompanied by high T-bill yields, a double headwind. Elevated VIX alone is not sufficient to drive stablecoin growth if T-bills offer a superior alternative.
During low-volatility bull runs, capital can rotate from stablecoins into volatile assets even while absolute supply grows.
VIX (CBOE Volatility Index): daily implied volatility of S&P 500 options over the next 30 days. Published by CBOE (series VIXCLS). A VIX above 20 indicates elevated uncertainty; above 30 is historically associated with stress or crisis conditions.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index: Daily composite score (0–100) from public market-sentiment data combining market volatility, momentum, social media sentiment, dominance, and Google Trends data. Coverage: Jan 2020 – present. Extreme Fear (<25), Fear (25–45), Neutral (45–55), Greed (55–75), Extreme Greed (>75).
S&P 500: Daily closing level of the S&P 500 index (public market data). Used as a broad equity risk proxy.
Regime bands: FOMC policy period dates. Updated manually within one business day of policy changes.
Comparison indicators (left axis):
- Market Cap, daily sum across tracked stablecoins. The standard safe-haven lens.
- Velocity, sum of daily on-chain volume (24h) divided by total market cap. Tests whether risk-off conditions reduce settlement vs just parking capital.
- USDT Dominance. USDT share of total. Captures offshore safe-haven flows under stress.
- USDC Dominance. USDC share of total. Tracks institutional T-bill rotation under stress (Circle's reserve carry).
- Supply Shock Index (SSI), rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin market cap. The flux signal under each risk regime.
- Issuer Theil, Theil entropy of issuer market shares. Watch whether stress drives concentration.
What this page does not prove: Co-movement between VIX/Fear & Greed and any comparison series is not causation. Risk-off episodes often coincide with rate, liquidity, and credit shocks simultaneously, attribution to one channel is unsafe. Use the comparison feature to identify which indicators move together under stress, not to assign single causes.