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Stablecoin Supply Shock Index: Is Issuance Outpacing Demand?

· Updated daily at 15:20 UTC

As of Jul 2026, the aggregate stablecoin Supply Shock Index stands at -2.21%, classified as Net Redemption. The SSI is the rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin supply: SSI = (market_cap[t] − market_cap[t−30]) ÷ market_cap[t−30] × 100. Values above 6% indicate a supply shock — issuance running ahead of observable transactional activity. SSI is a directional proxy, not a direct measure of demand absorption; readings should be confirmed against DeFi lending rates, peg behaviour, and redemption flows. Values between 3% and 6% indicate elevated issuance. Values below 0% indicate net redemption. At present, USDG shows the highest expansion pressure (SSI +12.73%) while USDTB shows the most contraction (SSI -31.36%). Data covers 449 daily snapshots from Apr 2025 to present.

Aggregate SSI
-2.21%
Net Redemption
Most Expanding
USDG
SSI +12.73%
Most Contracting
USDTB
SSI -31.36%
Coins Tracked
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with SSI data

Aggregate Supply Shock Index

Rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin supply. Bars above 6% (red) indicate supply shock; 3–6% (amber) elevated issuance; 0–3% (green) normal expansion; below 0 (amber) net redemption. Reacts to date toggle.

Supply Shock by Coin, Top 6

Rolling 30-day percent change in supply per major stablecoin. Lines above 6% are in supply shock territory. Reacts to date toggle.

Current SSI Rankings

Latest 30-day SSI per coin. Always shows the most recent 30-day window; does not change with the date toggle.

How to Read the SSI

SSI > 6% · Supply Shock

Supply is expanding by more than 6% per month — issuance is running ahead of observable transactional activity. The reading is a warning flag; whether it produces yield compression in DeFi or simply reflects new collateral demand requires confirmation from DeFi lending rates and peg behaviour.

SSI 3–6% · Elevated Issuance

Monthly supply growth between 3% and 6%. Above the long-term trend but not yet a shock. Monitor for sustained growth at this pace, which often precedes shock-level readings.

SSI 0–3% · Normal Expansion

Healthy monthly supply growth in line with the structural growth rate of the stablecoin market (~3% per month on average). New supply is being absorbed by active settlement, collateral, and payment use.

SSI < 0% · Net Redemption

Supply is contracting: redemptions exceed new issuance. A risk-off signal. Sustained negative SSI has coincided with periods of liquidity stress in DeFi; the chart shows the pattern but does not establish that contraction caused the stress, nor the reverse.

Methodology

Formula: SSI = (Market Captoday − Market Cap30 days ago) ÷ Market Cap30 days ago × 100

Interpretation: The rolling 30-day percent change in stablecoin supply. Self-normalising, comparable across coins of any size and across time periods. The long-term structural growth rate of the stablecoin market sits around 3% per month, so readings above that range signal accelerated issuance, and readings above 6% historically coincide with yield compression in DeFi lending.

Data source: CoinGecko API, daily market cap per coin. Aggregate SSI uses sum of all tracked coins. Minimum 31 days of data required.

Update frequency: Daily at 15:20 UTC.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the stablecoin Supply Shock Index?
The SSI is the rolling 30-day percent change in total stablecoin supply. SSI = (market_cap[t] − market_cap[t−30]) ÷ market_cap[t−30] × 100. Above 6% signals a supply shock; 3–6% elevated issuance; 0–3% normal expansion; below 0 net redemption.
What does an SSI above 6% mean?
Stablecoin supply expanded by more than 6% over the last 30 days. The long-term structural growth rate of the stablecoin market sits around 3% per month, so readings above 6% indicate accelerated issuance. Persistent SSI > 6% has historically coincided with yield compression in DeFi lending markets, though the chart shows the pattern without establishing which side leads the other.
What does a negative SSI mean?
Net redemptions exceed issuance, total stablecoin market cap declined over the 30-day window. A risk-off signal. Sustained negative SSI has coincided with periods of liquidity stress in DeFi lending markets, though the chart documents the co-movement without establishing direction of causation.
Why use percent change rather than a volume-based ratio?
Percent change is self-normalising and comparable across coins of any size and across time. Volume-based ratios are confounded by exchange wash trading and structural changes in trading venue mix, both of which can suppress the signal. Percent change of supply directly measures issuance pace relative to the existing market size.
Is high stablecoin issuance always a warning sign?
No. Supply expansion driven by genuine demand, enterprise treasury adoption, new payment corridors, regulatory approvals, is healthy. The SSI becomes a warning signal only when issuance consistently exceeds the structural ~3% monthly trend, suggesting supply is being minted speculatively rather than meeting active transactional need.